| christian grantham | |||
| Christian Grantham was a student activist in the late 90s and later a consultant to domestic policy forums for the Clinton Administration as well as events for HRC and GLAAD. | |||
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March 11, 2005
Having it both ways: Remember the exit polls that showed the largest defining issue among Bush supporters in the 2004 Presidential elections was "moral issues?" The GOP, White House, and other conservatives previously dismissed the 2004 exit polls results that painted the Republican Party base as radical evangelicals. Now they are embracing the exit poll's data and touting them as evidence of increased black support.
In the 2004 Presidential exit polls, the largest percentage of voters for George W. Bush cited "moral issues" as the top issue, beating jobs, the economy and the war in Iraq. Some priorities! Those who cited "jobs" and "the economy" in the exit polls as the most important issues our country faces overwhelmingly voted for John Kerry. Go figure.
The Republican Party leadership hopes to use exit poll results to bolster an expansion of support among black voters that share something in common with their evangelical base: opposition to equal rights for gays. One thing going for today's Republican Party leadership is the fact that bigotry comes in all colors. (via GayOrbit)
The GOP remains behind the Democrats in attracting black voters: President Bush won 11% of the black vote in the 2004 presidential election. But, Republican strategists said, he got 16% of the black vote in Ohio, which helped secure his victory in that state.Bush had drawn 9% of the African American vote, both in Ohio and nationwide, in 2000.
Party officials contended the increase was the result of targeted outreach to socially conservative black ministers who, like the president, oppose same-sex marriage and support school vouchers.
[GOP Forms Panel to Draw More Blacks Into Tent - L.A. Times - 03-10-05]
filed under: Polls
March 08, 2005
I'm certainly not a poll expert, but in a recent survey posted on Gallup's website (subscription only) about the "moral and ethical climate" in America, it seemed like to me Gallup failed to define "morality," and barely mentioned, much less measured or scored, the issues people cited in their definition of "moral issues."
What springs to mind when Gallup asks Americans to assess the nation's "moral and ethical climate"? In follow-up interviews with some of the poll's respondents, the answers are diverse. Sexual and violent content in television and movies, prejudice, the economy, environmental waste, plagiarism in schools, corporate scandals, gay rights, and divorce are just a few of the topics that people associate with the moral and ethical climate in America.
[Morality Meter: Americans Dissatisfied With Ethical Climate - Gallup - 03-08-05]
Despite the following chart in the Gallup data showing Americans have a higher level of statisfaction in the nation's moral and ethical climate, some media highlight how "troubled" Americans are. When I read polls, I tend to pay attention first to the trends and then the results.
filed under: Polls
January 12, 2005
According to this report, voters do come out and support candidates that stand up to anti-gay marriage amendments.
Voting against anti-gay marriage amendments did not hurt incumbents' chances of re-election.
If anything, it may have helped. The report found that 97% (100 of 103) of state legislators who voted against anti-gay constitutional amendments and ran for re-election won their races, compared to 91% of state legislators who voted for them ( 196 of 215) . In all five states combined, 19 legislators who voted for anti-gay amendments lost their seats. Only 3 legislators who voted against these amendments lost their seats.In Iowa and Minnesota, legislators who voted against these amendments fared significantly better than their anti-gay colleagues.
In Iowa, all 7 legislators who voted against the anti-gay amendment were re-elected, compared to 71% (10 of 14) of those who voted for it. In Minnesota, 98% (40 of 41) of House members who voted against the anti-gay amendment were re-elected, compared to 86% of those who voted for it.Republican legislators did not receive any electoral benefit from supporting anti-gay amendments in these five states.
In Michigan, Democrats picked up seats, closing the Republican majority in the House from 63-46 to 58-52. Although all Iowa Democrats voted against the anti-gay constitutional amendment, the Democrats picked up a net four seats, evening the balance of power in the Senate in which the majority had been Republican.
[Report Finds Incumbents' Chances of Re-election Unharmed by Voting Against Anti-gay Marriage Amendments - NGLTF - 01-12-05]View the report Impact of Voting against Anti-Gay Marriage Amendments on 2004 Re-election Campaigns (pdf).
filed under: Polls
November 18, 2004
When Bush/Cheney '04 pandered to the fears and prejudices of their party's evangelical base, they knew they'd deliver the votes. Now Republicans are faced with an empowered radical party base demanding the lynching of party moderate Arlen Specter.
What are Republicans to do? Do they publicly herald radical agendas of their evangelical base, or do they publicly isolate their evangelical base and support Specter? Oh, the choices Republicans face.
But how did this happen? What is fueling a looming specter of isolation and dissatisfaction of an emboldened evangelical base of the Republican party? Two words: EXIT POLLS.
When Senator Arlen Specter wins his judiciary chairmanship, he can thank all those Republicans scared to death that they'd appear to validate the suggestion by exit-polls that evangelicals own the Republican party. Republicans will be the first ones to embrace exit-poll data suggesting slight gains among women, blacks and others. If Democrats want to win, they will also seize the leverage provided by exit-polls that tell the American people who is really driving Republican policy proposals over the next four years.
"It's sounding like the Republicans are cutting a deal with Specter to allow him to become chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee despite his insult to the president, his 24-year liberal record, his double-speak and his core beliefs about judges and the Constitution, which conflict with the president's," said Jan LaRue, CWA's chief counsel."Do they think the people who are inundating them with calls and emails will be satisfied with that?"
[Why Specter? Conservative Group Asks - CNS - 11-18-04]
filed under: Moral Majority
, Polls
November 13, 2004
Democratic gay activists Mary Bonauto and Marty Rouse recently described "moral issues" voters as "equally troubled by the Viagra ads that play during "Everyone Loves Raymond." It's probably the one where the guy's devil horns return in the shape of Viagra pills outside the lingerie store with his wife. It was sandwiched between all the media on the moral issue of "gay marriage," whatever that is.
Boston Globe reader Ben Lieberman sorts this out.
AS A DEMOCRAT and a supporter of marriage equality I applaud Mary Bonauto and Marty Rouse for their commitment to principles (op ed, Nov. 9), but I fear that they minimize the real political backlash against same-sex marriage. The exit poll numbers they cite may reveal gradual progress toward winning support for full rights for all Americans, but the ballot initiatives in many states mobilized support against same-sex marriage and brought voters to the polls in key races.Bonauto and Rouse should not cave in because of the election, and those who wish to marry a spouse of the same sex should do so. However, ignoring the political reaction against same-sex marriage will leave Democrats with no way to combat those who intentionally manipulate fear for political ends.
[Backlash against gay marriage - LTE: Ben Lieberman - 11-13-04]
filed under: Moral Majority
, Polls
November 12, 2004
Michelangelo Signorile writes in the NY Press that we shouldn't believe that "gay marriage" was the biggest "moral issue" of President Bush's base.
The entire "moral values" story of the 2004 election has been greatly exaggerated by the corporate media. Not so coincidentally, it fits exactly with what the Republicans would like everyone to believe.
[DON’T BLAME THE GAYS - NY Press - 11-10-04]
Signorile's argument fits more with Rush Limbaugh's, whose conservative talking points encourage listeners to also dismiss the idea that a "moral values" vote was rallied by anti-gay sentiments.
"So when this whole business comes up, don't accept the premise, just tell 'em the premise is being concocted by people who are trying to diminish the real meaning of the president's victory here. If you want to cite a stat you can go ahead and say, hey, gay marriage was defeated in all these 11 states with a 60-40 margin, 58-42 margin. Bush was 51-48. Doesn't add up. Then say he didn't lose any gay votes this time and the election of 2000, if you want to do that. But don't accept the premise. That's one of the greatest ways of defeating the left in an argument, just don't accept their premises, it just puts you on defensive. If you accept a phony premise, you're trying to defend something phony. It's crazy. Don't waste time with it."
[Gay Marriage Did Not Turn Election - Rush Limbaugh - 11-04-04]
What fits exactly with what the Republicans would like everyone to believe is Limbaugh and Signorile's idea that Republicans rallied the common sense of America's moderate majority instead of pandering to the fears and prejudices of America's moral majority.
filed under: Moral Majority
, Polls
November 10, 2004
More wisdom from Bill Clinton that our nation's gay leaders seem eager to refute, with the exception of LCR's Patrick Guerriero. It is time our national gay and lesbian leadership accept reality and the idea that red states need more than their annual visits to pick up their paychecks. There is a lot of work to be done, and it's not in the gayborhoods of the blue states.
"There was an astonishing turnout among evangelical Christians, who said they were voting on moral values," Clinton said. "I do not believe either party has a monopoly on morality or truth. I do not believe that the Democrats can seek to be a national party unless we feel comfortable talking about our convictions."
[Bill Clinton speaks to full house at Hamilton - Post-Standard - 11-10-04]
Clinton also said that Democrat John Kerry was hurt by the polarizing issue of gay marriage, which was legalized by Massachusetts' top court and put on the ballot in 11 states, and the surfacing of a tape from Osama bin Laden in the final days of the race.
[BILL: WHY BUSH WON - NY Post - 11-06-04]
filed under: Moral Majority
, Polls
November 09, 2004
I saw Harold Ickes on CSPAN yesterday. You might know he's a co-founder of Americans Coming Together, among other things. Ickes became a Democrat when he went to the South to help fight for civil rights. He had this to say about how Republican pandering to fear and prejudice drove the black vote to Democrats.
"I'll tell you why black voters voted for the Democratic party. I want to bring that up. It is because the Republican Party in the 1940s and the 1950s and the 1960s made a conscious decision to support the racists elements in this country to try to grab away the white South from the Democratic party. That is the long and short of it. And they were blatant about it. And they used racism, they used that whole issue of racism in the form of 'affirmative action' in the form of busing, uh, equal employment opportunity. They just flogged the Democratic party with that, and they did it with malice of forethought. They wanted to grab white voters. And they, in large measure, were successful in the South.I think it's a temporary phenomenon. But they were responsible for that. That had a real moral underpinning. I think there are few people in this country today who would say that blacks are inferior and therefore should not be afforded the civil and other rights that are afforded them under the constitution and the law of the land. That took a long time coming and the Republican party and the national Republican leadership were in the forefront of using that to try to take down the Democratic party. It was disgraceful. It was immoral. That's all I have to say."
[Harold Ickes - Americans Coming Together - 11-08-04 (watch the video 51:00)]
filed under: Polls
November 09, 2004
I wonder which moral issue Eleanor Smeal feels was discussed more than abortion in the 2004 Presidential election?
"To me it is amazing, we're one week away from the election, and now everybody's talking about the impact of, um, the election on abortion and the impact of the next Supreme Court Justice on abortion. Yet, during this election, unless it was specifically asked during the debate, it was hardly discussed. And that is one of our problems. It's hardly discussed.Now everybody says, 'well it was. You know. Now everybody's talking about abortion.' You can hardly turn on a television without them talking about Rhenquist and the impact on abortion. It was not talked [sic] during the election. In fact, it was obfuscated except in the debates, and obviously we now know in looking at, yes the debate were important, but they weren't the most important thing that happened during the entire, uh, campaign."
[Eleanor Smeal - Feminist Majority Foundation - 11-09-04 (watch video 40:30)]
filed under: Moral Majority
, Polls
November 09, 2004
Look out LOGO TV! The post-election analysis of gay activists Mary Bonauto and Marty Rouse sees a grim future ahead ... for cable television.
What about the political landscape? According to Bonauto and Rouse, guns and abortion were really the major moral issues. The only thing missing to back that claim up are the widespread ballot measures, rallies, direct mail pieces to church membership, conservatives touring nationally, national boycotts by the nation's largest Protestant denomination, U.S. Congressional Republican Policy reports, federal attempts to amend the United States constitution, nationally recognized awareness weeks backed by President Bush, overwhelming media attention, and efforts eclipsing the hard work of Bonauto and Rouse on any other moral issue. All of those events occurred within the past year alone over the issue of "gay marriage."
Isn't it time to accept the facts and proactively change our movement's focus to funding the dirty work outside our blue safe holds?
Did the voters cite "moral values" as they left their polling places? Yes, but abortion and guns were cited more often than marriage, and it appears that those voters were equally troubled by the Viagra ads that play during "Everyone Loves Raymond." Cable television and its programming also took a big hit. Is it any surprise, then, that simplifying the results to marriage makes it easier if you happen to be an industry lobbyist in Washington or work with a right-wing institution?
[Gay marriage is not to blame - Boston Globe - 11-09-04]
filed under: Media
, Polls
November 07, 2004
The Christian Coalition thinks they know what rallied the Republican Moral Majority more than any other issue.
Roberta Combs, president of the Christian Coalition of America, made similar comments, saying evangelicals were mobilized by the same-sex marriage issue."We are pleased that both the executive branch and the legislative branch will be controlled by pro-family conservatives and that every one of the 11 state constitutional amendments to ban homosexual 'marriages' passed overwhelmingly," Combs said. "There is no doubt that because four radical left-wing Massachusetts judges ruled that homosexual 'marriages' are constitutional last year, there was a conservative backlash which played a major role in the election outcome yesterday. Christian evangelicals made the major difference once again this year."
[Moral issues drove voters - World Net Daily - 11-03-04]
filed under: Moral Majority
, Polls
November 06, 2004
I only hope that the majority of Repuhblicans who do not want to scapegoat and target gay couples will stand up and be counted in the next few years. We need them desperately.
[A CHASTENED REPUBLICAN - Andrew Sullivan - 11=06-04]
filed under: Polls
November 06, 2004
[BILL: WHY BUSH WON - NY Post - 11-06-04]
filed under: Polls
November 06, 2004
In the post-election spin, many people are terribly concerned with analysis suggesting "gay marriage" is the top issue that rallied the Republican Moral Majority base of the Republican party. In exit polls, 22% of voters for George W. Bush cited "moral issues" as the top issue, beating jobs, the economy and the war in Iraq. "Moral issues" can mean a lot of things, but some people don't want us to believe the largest moral issue driving Bush's largest base of support was "gay marriage"
Much of the misinterpretation of this election derives from a poorly worded question in the exit polls. When asked about the issue that most influenced their vote, voters were given the option of saying "moral values." But that phrase can mean anything - or nothing. Who doesn't vote on moral values? If you ask an inept question, you get a misleading result.
[The Values-Vote Myth - New York Times - 11-06-05]"It would be a mistake to conclude that the 22% of voters who placed 'moral values' at the top of their list were uniformly anti-gay in their voting," Garry explained. "Moral values can encompass whole host of issues and opinions -- issues like a woman's right to choose; social, racial and economic justice; stem-cell research; gay and lesbian equality; the honesty and integrity of public officials, and much more.
[GLAAD Calls on Media to Present Complete Picture of Gay Issues and the 2004 Vote - GLAAD - 11-04-04]"So when this whole business comes up, don't accept the premise, just tell 'em the premise is being concocted by people who are trying to diminish the real meaning of the president's victory here. If you want to cite a stat you can go ahead and say, hey, gay marriage was defeated in all these 11 states with a 60-40 margin, 58-42 margin. Bush was 51-48. Doesn't add up. Then say he didn't lose any gay votes this time and the election of 2000, if you want to do that. But don't accept the premise. That's one of the greatest ways of defeating the left in an argument, just don't accept their premises, it just puts you on defensive. If you accept a phony premise, you're trying to defend something phony. It's crazy. Don't waste time with it."
[Gay Marriage Did Not Turn Election - Rush Limbaugh - 11-04-04]
These are just some of the voices urging us to consider that "moral issues" could mean anything. It's one thing to make that argument, but it's another to willfully ignore the past year and a half's worth of focus on the predominant moral issue of our time, "gay marriage."
To believe "gay marriage" isn't the predominant "moral issue" of the Republican Moral Majority, one would have to assume there were more conservative fundraising solicitations and direct mail campaign drops to church mailing lists citing any other moral issue more than "gay marriage." They'd have to demonstrate any other moral issue exceeded the number of times the United States Congressional record showed Republican led attempts to address "gay marriage," including reports by the Republican Policy Committee, bills seeking to strip courts of jurisdiction over DOMA, and an amendment to the United States Constitution. They'd also have to discount the Republican Party Platform's far more aggressive stance on gay marriage than any other moral issue. They'd have to gloss over massive rallies, like the 14 that took place all across the state of Illinois last month over the issue of gay marriage. They'd have to present any other moral issue that garnered a nationally declared "Marriage Protection Week," supported by President Bush on "the issue of our time."
Was any other Christian conservative as moved to tour nationally over any other moral issue as much as James Dobson and Jerry Falwell were over gay marriage? Jerry Falwell actually threatened to bolt the Republican party last year over the moral issue of "gay marriage." I know of no other moral issue that topped an unprecedented 11 state ballot measures that specifically baned gay marriage. This list could go on and on.
If "gay marriage" wasn't the predominant "moral issue" of President Bush's Republican Moral Majority, I'd like to know what was.
Wanting "moral issues" to be about something else for both conservatives and liberals is completely political, but it doesn't change the facts. Conservatives hate the idea that their party base responded to their pandering over "gay marriage" by stiring radical evangelical passions. Liberals (mostly gay activists) fear the real work ahead in a sea of red will decentralize their perception of power among Democrats cacooned in protective slivers of blue.
Despite those fears by both sides seeking to make "moral issues" about anything else, these same people will all be the first to use exit poll data to argue their strengths. Republicans will continue to say they're expanding their support among blacks and women. Democrats will continue to argue demographics are changing citing the youth vote. In the process, they'll both hypocritically use the very same data they currently lament to sell their case.
filed under: Equal Marriage Rights
, Moral Majority
, Polls
November 05, 2004
In a broad ranging warning to media over post-election coverage, the nation's media watch dog for gays and lesbians, GLAAD, gets political.
"It would be a mistake to conclude that the 22% of voters who placed 'moral values' at the top of their list were uniformly anti-gay in their voting," Garry explained. "Moral values can encompass whole host of issues and opinions -- issues like a woman's right to choose; social, racial and economic justice; stem-cell research; gay and lesbian equality; the honesty and integrity of public officials, and much more. To assume a direct correlation between 'moral values' and the anti-gay intolerance that led to the passage of yesterday's amendments is both inaccurate and an unsophisticated approach to a set of complex data."
[GLAAD Calls on Media to Present Complete Picture of Gay Issues and the 2004 Vote - GLAAD - 11-04-04]
I haven't seen any media saying voters who cited "moral values" as the nation's top election issue were "uniformly anti-gay." Even so, GLAAD would be hard pressed to produce more press clippings, direct mail solicitations or television transcripts from the past year's election coverage that eclipses the issue of "gay marriage" as the top moral concern of Christian conservatives.
also read: BoiFromTroy
filed under: Polls
November 05, 2004
Did Gavin Newsom re-elect George Bush? That's the question being asked by many people, some of whom feel the audacity of gays and lesbians to expect fairness in America was over the top. What do you think?
filed under: Polls
November 05, 2004
Why does Rush Limbaugh desperately want America to reject exit poll data? Because the data suggests President Bush's largest base of support shared Senator Rick Santorum's view that gays are a bigger threat to America than job security, economic security and the war in Iraq.
"So when this whole business comes up, don't accept the premise, just tell 'em the premise is being concocted by people who are trying to diminish the real meaning of the president's victory here. If you want to cite a stat you can go ahead and say, hey, gay marriage was defeated in all these 11 states with a 60-40 margin, 58-42 margin. Bush was 51-48. Doesn't add up. Then say he didn't lose any gay votes this time and the election of 2000, if you want to do that. But don't accept the premise. That's one of the greatest ways of defeating the left in an argument, just don't accept their premises, it just puts you on defensive. If you accept a phony premise, you're trying to defend something phony. It's crazy. Don't waste time with it."
[Gay Marriage Did Not Turn Election - Rush Limbaugh - 11-04-04]
Does this mean America will now be relieved of Limbaugh and other conservatives selling notions derived from exit polls that Republicans gained votes among black and women? Don't count on it. Limbaugh's dope-fueled hypocrisy will selectively cling to these exit polls for the next four years.
filed under: Moral Majority
, Polls
November 03, 2004
As many times as I've witnessed four years of half measures and opportunities squandered by President Bush, I can't help to be skeptical. Today, Kerry's concession was gracious and demonstrated a level of unity sadly missing from President Bush over the last four years.
By contrast, President Bush described his 'to do list' for the next four years as things he "will" accomplish while describing the challenge presented by Kerry of unifying the nation as something he'll simply "work" on.
Half of America does not agree with this President or the direction our country is going. President Bush will have to do more than simply pledge to try. If there is one absolute mandate granted President Bush by a divided American people, it is to demonstrate leadership and make unity a national priority.
KERRY CONCESSION
With that gift also comes obligation. We are required now to work together for the good of our country. In the days ahead, we must find common cause. We must join in common effort without remorse or recrimination, without anger or rancor. America is in need of unity and longing for a larger measure of compassion.I hope President Bush will advance those values in the coming years. I pledge to do my part to try to bridge the partisan divide. I know this is a difficult time for my supporters, but I ask them, all of you, to join me in doing that.
[Transcript of Kerry Speech - John Kerry - 11-03-04]BUSH VICTORY
To make this nation stronger and better, I will need your support and I will work to earn it. I will do all I can do to deserve your trust. A new term is a new opportunity to reach out to the whole nation. We have one country, one Constitution, and one future that binds us. And when we come together and work together, there is no limit to the greatness of America.
[Transcript of Bush speech - Mercury News - 11-03-04]
filed under: Polls
November 03, 2004
The numbers are in behind President George Bush's victory.
TURNOUT:
Besides showing a strongly divided country, voter turnout was 65% (113 million) of the 173.6 million registered voters.
GAY VOTE:
4,524,641 gays and lesbians voted (4%). 1,040,667 (23%) cast a vote for George Bush.
YOUTH VOTE:
Despite claims by some 527s on their wild success mobilizing the youth vote, the facts are they did not. Only 17% of 18-29 year olds bothered to vote, which was the exact percentage in 2000. I reported on a foreshadowing indicator of this failure here.
ISSUES:
The most important issue for voters were "moral issues" (22%) followed by "terrorism" (19%), and an overwhelming number of voters who identified these issues voted for George Bush (79% and 86% respectively). Issue of Jobs, Economy (18%) and Iraq (15%) came second and overwhelmingly favored John Kerry.
George Bush's appeal to anti-gay sentiments in his base drove conservatives to vote on the issue of "gay marriage" before issues in which our country needs leadership.
filed under: Polls
November 02, 2004
UPDATE 11-03-04: I froze this map at 11:34 a.m., minutes before Kerry is to give what is expected to be a concession speech.
filed under: Polls
November 02, 2004
John Zogby: "Watch Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. There may be some big surprises!"
Colorado (9)
Florida (27)
Pennsylvania (21)
Virginia (13)
UPDATE 6:00p.m. - Zogby calls the race for Kerry
Bush - 213
Kerry - 311
filed under: Polls
November 02, 2004
I first saw these numbers on Wonkette and Washington Monthly, then they popped up on Drudge and everywhere else from there. Conservatives over at National Review blogged their panic in real time, then went into self-assurances that these were exactly what they were: EARLY EXIT POLLS.
| AZ | CO | LA | PA | OH | FL | MI | NM | MN | WI | IA | NH | |
| Kerry | 45 | 48 | 42 | 60 | 52 | 51 | 51 | 50 | 58 | 52 | 49 | 57 |
| Bush | 55 | 51 | 57 | 40 | 48 | 48 | 47 | 48 | 40 | 43 | 49 | 41 |
CRIMINEY! I went out for a brief lunch with missus and I come back to discover things are going south? What the...? From what I'm hearing, Florida's an uphill climb right now and New Hampshire's a lost cause. Trying to nail things down
[National Review Online - Jonah Goldberg - 11-02-04]Those numbers I posted, as I wrote at the time, may well not hold up throughout the day. A few look way off to me, as I wrote. But few GOP bigwigs are disputing that the early exit numbers are not encouraging for Bush. Oh, and whomever you're voting for, for Pete's sake, don't be put off by exit polls. As I said earlier, they are not accounting for early voting, and some seem to have a heavy female bias. They are a blur of a blur. So stay tuned. And vote.
[The Sound of a Fizzle? - Andrew Sullivan - 11-02-04]If Wonkette existed in 1992, we would have seen this headline: Birdies: Perot Winning Ohio! Anyone else remember that election-day buzz around Washington on November 5, 1992? So, everybody, simmer down.
[Exit Poll Flashback - BoiFromTroy - 11-02-04]The early exit polls show Kerry leading in FLOHPA. Calm down folks. Resume GOTV activities. I'm hearing that the Bush team is quite confident.
[Calm Down - RedState - 11-02-04]Read the MysteryPoller as to why you shouldn't place any stock in the early exit polls. That said... Kerry supporters here's the message you should take from the numbers: No need to show up; your vote isn't needed.
[All Sides Agree - Early Exit Polls Are Crap - WizBang - 11-02-04]
filed under: Polls
November 02, 2004
Republican lawyers can no longer defend the rights of voters by intimidating native American voters in South Dakota. Not to worry, Republican lawyers in Ohio have swarmed predominately black precints by the thousands to defend America from black voters and their Democratic defenders.
Republican poll workers in Lake Andes were intimidating Native American voters on Monday, a federal judge ruled early today.Republicans may not write down license plate numbers or follow Native Americans from polling places during today's election, U.S. District Judge Lawrence Piersol ruled in a temporary restraining order.
[Judge orders GOP to halt poll tactics - Argus Leader - 11-02-04]
filed under: Campaign Madness
, Polls
November 02, 2004
As an 80 something year old voter waddled from her voting booth here in Virginia, a smiling 60 something year old poll worker stopped her to make sure she got a sticker for voting. The older voter stopped, slowly turned with a perplexed look and took the sticker. When she realized what had stopped her momentum toward leaving, she crumbled up the sticker, stuck it in her pocket, and shuffled out grumbling to herself.
That was the only problem Vince and I saw this morning as we voted for President John Kerry, and hopefully that will be the worst of it. The lines were long for the first time I've seen in a while. There were about 200 people waiting around 9:40 a.m., mostly elderly and happy to be taking part in democracy.
I was voter #347 in the A-G line. There were 2 electronic machines and 6 lever machines. Vince and I used the electronic machines. Elderly people didn't seem to mind using the machines, but did take forever using them.
other blog votes: Atrios, Daily Kos, BoiFromTroy, Left Coast Conservative, Moderate Republican, Command Post, BlackFive
filed under: Polls
November 02, 2004
What else should we expect from a bunch of educated liberals who were clearly not taught the Bible in college? The Gay and Lesbian Alliance Against Defamation (GLAAD) says newspapers in the 11 states with ballot measures banning gay marriage came out overwhelmingly against the proposed bans.
As of Oct. 31, GLAAD has tracked a total of 73 newspapers that have published endorsements on the Nov. 2 ballot initiatives. A total of 67 daily newspapers are opposed to the local amendments, with only five in support: The Augusta (Ga.) Chronicle, The Oklahoman (Oklahoma City), The News-Review (Roseburg, Ore.), The Winchester (Ky.) Sun, and the Daily News (Bowling Green, Ky.)All five of those newspapers supporting the amendments are also endorsing President Bush. But many other Bush backers are breaking against the amendments.
GLAAD compared its survey of daily newspapers with E&P's tally of presidential endorsements and found that many newspapers -- including The Cincinnati Enquirer, The Columbus Dispatch, and The Salt Lake Tribune -- are both endorsing President Bush and advocating for the defeat of their state's "anti-gay" amendment.
[Dailies Overwhelmingly Come Out Against "Anti-Gay" Amendments, GLAAD Finds - Editor & Publisher - 11-01-04]
filed under: Media
, Polls
November 01, 2004
The lines are forming, and 20% of American voters have already voted in early voting. In the last two days, the latest polling momentum has trended toward Kerry. Tomorrow is the day America decides who will lead our country.
Turnout: 115,000,000
Bush: 48%
Kerry: 51%
Voters could number 118 million to 121 million, a big jump from the 106 million who voted in 2000, predicts Curtis Gans, director of the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate. Just reaching the 118 million mark would match the intensity of the last big upswing, in 1992, when 58% of eligible voters turned out. Hitting the high end of Gans's estimate would approach the record '60s era when battles over civil rights and the Vietnam War drew a horde of new voters.
[Will All Those New Voters Show Up? - Business Week - 11-08-04]
filed under: Polls
November 01, 2004
It's all about turn out. Tomorrow morning, after posting the Outlet Wire, Vince and I will drive a couple of miles down the road to a high school and vote. How many people do you think will turn out to vote tomorrow? In 2000, 99-100 million people voted, or 55% of those eligible to vote.
More than eight in 10 registered voters in the Pew poll, 84 percent, describe this election as especially important, compared with 67 percent in 2000 and 61 percent in 1996.Pew pollster Andrew Kohut said the poll suggests turnout could be as high or slightly higher than in 1992, when it was more than 55 percent of those eligible to vote - based on his analysis of voter enthusiasm.
[Polls Suggest Higher Voter Turnout Likely - AP - 11-01-04]
filed under: Polls
November 01, 2004
Electoral witchcraft: here are the last electoral calculations based on meta-polling before tomorrow's election.
filed under: Polls
October 31, 2004
More polling witchcraft.
The Marine knows that there is a 100 percent correlation between the Washington Redskins win-loss record and the outcome of every presidential contest dating back to 1940. If the Redskins win their last home game prior to Election Day, the party in power stays in power. Conversely, if the Skins lose the game, the incumbent party is on the street.In 2000 - Tennessee Titans 27, Redskins 21: Bush defeats Al Gore.
In 1996 - Redskins 31, Indianapolis Colts 16: Bill Clinton defeats Bob Dole.
In 1992 - New York Giants 24, Redskins 7: Clinton defeats George H.W. Bush.
In 1988 - Redskins 27, New Orleans Saints 24: Bush defeats Michael Dukakis.
Therefore, forget about the Electoral College, voting irregularities in Florida, and missing weapons in Iraq. The fate of the free world, says one observer, rides on the Redskins versus the Packers on Halloween night.
[Spooky stats - John McCaslin - 10-31-04]
filed under: Polls
October 30, 2004
RealClearPolitics Poll Average
Right Track-Wrong Track/Direction of Country
Overall, do you think the country is heading in the right direction or the wrong direction?
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Right
Direction
|
Wrong
Direction
|
Spread
|
|
RCP
Average
|
10/20
- 10/29
|
41.0%
|
53.0%
|
-12.0%
|
|
10/27
- 10/29
|
39%
|
56%
|
-17%
|
|
|
10/27
- 10/28
|
42%
|
46%
|
-4%
|
|
|
10/25
- 10/28
|
41%
|
53%
|
-12%
|
|
|
10/21
- 10/22
|
40%
|
56%
|
-16%
|
|
|
10/20
- 10/22
|
43%
|
54%
|
-11%
|
filed under: Polls
October 29, 2004
DailyKos dug up a snapshot of where we were at this time in 2000.
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
October 24-26 2000Likely Voters' Choice for President
Bush 52%
Gore 39
Nader 4%
Buchanan 1%Sampling error: +/-3.5% pt
[Tracking poll: Bush holds on to advantage - CNN - 10-27-00]
President Bush's Approval Rating from Newsweek via Polling Report shows the President's approval rating below 50%.
filed under: Polls
October 19, 2004
filed under: Polls
October 07, 2004
filed under: Polls