christian grantham
Christian Grantham was a student activist in the late 90s and later a consultant to domestic policy forums for the Clinton Administration as well as events for HRC and GLAAD.
	latest posts   George Bush and the Draft   Gallup over sampling Republicans   Read My Lips: $3 Trillion   Count Every Vote ... Sometimes Twice   Bush's $3 Trillion price tag

October 18, 2004

On the campaign trail, George Bush continues to blatantly lie to the American people on troop levels in Iraq.

BUSH: "There are 100,000 troops trained: police, guard, special units, border patrol. There's going to be 125,000 trained by the end of this year."
[First 2004 Presidential Debate - Transcript - 10-01-04]

REALITY: The documents show that of the nearly 90,000 currently in the police force, only 8,169 have had the full eight-week academy training. Another 46,176 are listed as "untrained," and it will be July 2006 before the administration reaches its new goal of a 135,000-strong, fully trained police force.
[Key Bush assertions about Iraq in dispute
- Washington Post - 09-26-04]

With the same level of confidence the Bush Administration presented known questionable intelligence as definitive causes for war, President Bush continues to say he will oppose a draft. President Bush has admitted to making a "misclaculation" in Iraq. What is his plan for troop level needs? The answers are, yet again, no where to be found.

view Bush and The Draft: Quicktime | Windows Media

filed under: Catastrophic Success , Fuzzy Math

September 17, 2004

A Gallup poll is all over the news wildly proclaiming a 13 point lead for President Bush (55%-42%) over Kerry.

President Bush has surged to a 13-point lead over Sen. John Kerry among likely voters, a new Gallup Poll shows. The 55%-42% match-up is the first statistically significant edge either candidate has held this year.
[Bush clear leader in poll - USA Today - 09-17-04]

But why is Gallup over sampling Republicans, and why do they plan to have an over sample of Republicans through the elections?

Total Sample: 767
GOP: 305 (40%)
Dem: 253 (33%)
Ind: 208 (28%)
[Why You Should Ignore The Gallup Poll This Morning - And Maybe All Of Theirs - Left Coaster - 09-17-04]

Here is what John Zogby said about Newsweek's wild numbers after the Republican National Convention, showing they also over sampled Republicans.

Both Time's 52% to 41% lead among likely voters and Newsweek's 54% to 43% lead among registered voters give the President a healthy 11 point lead. I have not yet been able to get the details of Time's methodology but I have checked out Newsweek's poll. Their sample of registered voters includes 38% Republican, 31% Democrat and 31% Independent voters.
[2004: It Is Not An 11 Point Race - John Zogby - 09-07-04]

filed under: Fuzzy Math

filed under: Fuzzy Math , Polls

September 15, 2004

Discussed here. Also noted by the Washington Post's Howard Kurtz:

The total cost of Bush's proposals at the Republican convention -- permanent tax cuts, prescription drugs, rural health clinics, the whole shmear -- is "likely to be well in excess of $3 trillion over a decade."

This from a guy who's been hammering Kerry for proposing a mere $2 trillion in programs (a figure Kerry denies, just as the Bush camp disputes the $3 trillion).

So will this now become the subject of endless cable debates, blogosphere posts and newspaper investigations? The conservative president, the apostle of limited government, is revealed as a Big Spender?

Nah. The chatter is still about IBM Selectrics and Kitty Kelley.
[A Trillion-Dollar Story - Washington Post -09-15-04]

filed under: Fuzzy Math

September 14, 2004

No wonder Bush is against stem-cell research.

According to the Washington Post, dementia is commonly caused by Alzheimer's disease, affecting 4.5 million Americans. Florida has about 455,000 demented voters.

"I said 'Did he pick?' and she said 'No, I picked for him,' " Swerdloff said. "I felt bad. She essentially voted twice" in the Florida election, which gave George W. Bush a 537-vote victory and the White House.

"I have had caregivers accompany dementia patients into the booth and vote for them," said Jean Merget, a social worker at the North Broward Memory Disorder Center in Pompano Beach, Fla., who said she repeatedly heard of the practice during support group meetings. "This is not uncommon, especially in Florida."
[Dementia and the Voter - Washington Post - 09-14-04]

filed under: Fuzzy Math

September 14, 2004

There you go again. In 2000, candidate Bush charged Gore with using "fuzzy math" to sell his plans to the American people. We now know who was right about numbers not adding up as our nation is saddled with record deficits and the largest government ever heaped on the American people.

Despite this fact, George Bush is at it again, saying:

"Not only is his plan going to increase the power of bureaucrats in your life," Bush said, "but he can't pay for it unless he raises your taxes."
[Bush says foe's health care plan would raise taxes - Houston Chronicle - 09-13-04]

President Bush's record and proposals for another four years clearly show no one in American history has out spent the big-government Republican that is George Bush.

The expansive agenda President Bush laid out at the Republican National Convention was missing a price tag, but administration figures show the total is likely to be well in excess of $3 trillion over a decade.

A staple of Bush's stump speech is his claim that his Democratic challenger, John F. Kerry, has proposed $2 trillion in long-term spending, a figure the Massachusetts senator's campaign calls exaggerated. But the cost of the new tax breaks and spending outlined by Bush at the GOP convention far eclipses that of the Kerry plan.
[$3 Trillion Price Tag Left Out As Bush Details His Agenda - Washington Post - 09-14-04]

Where is Arnold Schwarzenegger on the campaign trail when you need him to echo that winning Republican mantra of "fiscal responsibility" that got him elected in California? Mysteriously, that message of holding elected officials accountable by voting them out of office has vanished barely a year later.

also read: Wizbang (Fun with Numbers), Andrew Sullivan, Moderate Republican

filed under: Fuzzy Math

September 03, 2004

"I will ensure every poor county in America has a community or rural health center."

"We will double the number of people served by our principal job training program and increase funding for community colleges."

"Seven million more affordable homes in the next 10 years so more American families will be able to open the door and say welcome to my home."

"We will create American opportunity zones. In these areas, we'll provide tax relief and other incentives to attract new business, and improve housing and job training to bring hope and work throughout all of America."

Tax breaks+job training+tax cuts+government supported health care+increased college funding= a smaller, more efficient government.

Daddy Bush called that kind of irresponsible "tax cut and spend" fiscal policy "Voodoo Economics."

filed under: Fuzzy Math