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Christian Grantham was a student activist in the late 90s and later was a consultant to domestic policy forums for the Clinton Administration as well as events for HRC and GLAAD.
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September 17, 2004

A Gallup poll is all over the news wildly proclaiming a 13 point lead for President Bush (55%-42%) over Kerry.

President Bush has surged to a 13-point lead over Sen. John Kerry among likely voters, a new Gallup Poll shows. The 55%-42% match-up is the first statistically significant edge either candidate has held this year.
[Bush clear leader in poll - USA Today - 09-17-04]

But why is Gallup over sampling Republicans, and why do they plan to have an over sample of Republicans through the elections?

Total Sample: 767
GOP: 305 (40%)
Dem: 253 (33%)
Ind: 208 (28%)
[Why You Should Ignore The Gallup Poll This Morning - And Maybe All Of Theirs - Left Coaster - 09-17-04]

Here is what John Zogby said about Newsweek's wild numbers after the Republican National Convention, showing they also over sampled Republicans.

Both Time's 52% to 41% lead among likely voters and Newsweek's 54% to 43% lead among registered voters give the President a healthy 11 point lead. I have not yet been able to get the details of Time's methodology but I have checked out Newsweek's poll. Their sample of registered voters includes 38% Republican, 31% Democrat and 31% Independent voters.
[2004: It Is Not An 11 Point Race - John Zogby - 09-07-04]

filed under: Fuzzy Math